#2022 midterm predictions series#

It has a similar foundation as the Senate Forecast, which was one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020. Every day, it runs 20,000 simulations of the election to project how likely both parties are to capture the majority and win each race. The House Forecast uses data to break down the political battleground, and estimates which races are likely to be the most competitive. History shows us that the party out of power in the midterms tends to perform quite well, although the polling has been closer than expected nationally. Now it will be less, likely around a 1.5%. In the 2010s, they needed to win by around 3% to get the majority.

#2022 midterm predictions series#

They have benefitted from a series of fortuitous developments, including a more competitive congressional map nationally. However, our analysis finds that while McCarthy’s caucus is the favorite, Democrats still have a fighting shot at holding the House of Representatives. In February of 2021, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was so bullish that he said he'd bet his own house on a victory, and that there was no chance Democrats would win. That gave the GOP an air of confidence heading into the 2022 election cycle. Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting.Republicans had a surprisingly strong performance in the House elections in 2020, narrowing Democrat’s 35-seat lead to just 9. Midterm Election Politics Democrats poll Republicans U.S. Republicans lead on the generic ballot, enthusiasm, and key issues, such as inflation, the economy, immigration, and crime.įollow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Only 12 percent of Hispanics said they “approve strongly” of how Biden is managing the office.Īdditional polling shows that Republicans are leading on several important metrics. Hispanics make up key demographics in many of the swing states and districts. A Quinnipiac poll from last week revealed Hispanic voters disapproved of the leader of the Democrat Party, President Biden, more than any other racial group. The influx of GOP registered voters will likely have an impact on the statewide races.Īnother important variable is the Hispanic vote. The GOP in the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada have made key gains in voter registration, Breitbart News reported. McConnell Senate’s leadership fund is not the only variable. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) Senate Leadership Fund. The other toss-up races do have the support of McConnell. Likewise, Democrats will look to hold their toss-up seat in New Hampshire, though the seat is not being contested by Sen. The projection has the vacant North Carolina GOP seat as leaning red but highly contested. Republicans will look to hold Pennsylvania’s vacant seat while defending the GOP seat in Wisconsin. The seats that Republicans have an opportunity to reclaim are in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. If the GOP nets just one Senate seat, they would reclaim the Senate with a narrow majority. In the Senate, the prediction holds the higher chamber “leans” Republican. Redistricting will impact the 221 House seats the Democrats hold, and the 209 seats the Republicans represent. The prediction includes state redistricting, where the GOP will likely break even in a process it was expected to dominate. The forecast includes 24 toss-up seats that do not favor any party. The projections contend that 21 contested seats lean blue, while 16 seats lean Republican. Politico predicts the House will “likely” flip to Republicans. Anthony Fauci, the invasion at the southern border, and whether or not President Biden should be impeached. If both forecasts come true, the Republicans will have an opportunity to conduct oversight and investigate the origins of the pandemic, Dr. While it is less of a surprise that Republicans are predicted to reclaim the House, it is more surprising the Senate is projected to “lean” Republican.